Fourth Too Far??

Can Liverpool Finish 4th this season?

In all honesty probably not. Last season was a poor season by the high standards we set before it, this season was always going to be a struggle as a result.

Before the season started most people would have said that our main objective was to get back in to the top 4, but no one realised back then what a struggle it would be to actually do that. Many saw last season as just a blip, something that could easily be corrected this year, but there were problems on the field and off it that not many people paid too much attention to.

When you replace a manager, it is usually because things aren't working out and the team is performing badly. Last season under Benitez Liverpool weren't as good as they could have been, they weren't as good when judged against the high standards that the team set in the previous seasons - it looked like we were on an upward curve and Premier League glory was a certainty last season. That never happened, things were bad, but they weren't catastrophic. OK we finished 7th, but we did also get to the Europa League semi finals. And last season there were signs of the competitiveness that would become glaringly apparent this season. Other clubs in the league were strengthening their squads - both with quality and depth - whilst we did not. There were 6/7 teams challenging for the top 4 places - it was tight. We finished 7th, we where minutes away from the Europa League final? And we got back into the competition this season. One truly bad season, and Rafa is gone.

Look at Villa this season, they failed to invest and build upon last season, they had to find a new manager after O'Neill jumped ship and they have struggled this season and the clubs owners have now had to spend money to help keep the club in the league - they are only 3 points above the drop. That highlights the importance of building on what you achieve - we did not build on what we achieved in the 2008/09 season and we struggled in the next.

The reality is that he was sacked to make the club look more attractive to potential buyers - it was well known that he was always at odds with the clubs hierarchy - but then again, weren't we all??

I always felt that replacing Rafa with Hodgson would be a step back - new manager, new ideas etc etc the rebuilding would have to start from scratch. The clubs problems off the field, which were intensifying at the time did not help, but Hodgson never really looked like a good choice. He had some money to spend, pretty much a full summer to work with the team, but he was always punching above his weight at the club.

The downward spiral continued into the new season, the Hicks and Gillet sideshow diverting most of the attention off the team, but once that sideshow ended all focus was on the team. The new owners stood by him but in the end they had to let Hodgson go - it really wasn't working out.

In steps Kenny Dalglish, and the team looks transformed. Viewed as relegation candidates in December by February we are seen as being in with a shout of 4th spot. The change is unbelievable - but ultimately i feel it is too little too late in our bid to return to Europe's elite competition. We have spent money and strengthened, we are on a great run, unbeaten in 6 games, but the rebuilding has only just got started.

Victory against Wigan would have kept hopes alive, and whilst there is still a faint hope, the prospect of Champions League football next season is unlikely. The two teams above Liverpool - Chelsea and Spurs - both have games in hand over us, if they were to both win these, they would both be on 50points, 11 points ahead of the reds having played the same number of games. And with 11 games left to play this season it would be extremely difficult to gatecrash the party so late on.

It is not impossible, after all, nothing really is. The maximum number of points that Liverpool can finish with is 72. Spurs and Chelsea can both finish with 83. So in order for us to finish above them both would have to drop 12 points whilst Liverpool would have to not only remain unbeaten, but win every single one of our last 11 games - now that really is a big ask.

Looking into it further does provide some optimism - SOME. Chelsea have to play ManUtd (twice), Spurs and ManCity, Everton would not be an easy game for them either. So there is 5 games that Chelsea could potentially lose, and it wouldn't really be much of a shock if they did. Spurs stand out games of the run in are ManCity, Chelsea and Liverpool, again fixtures that they could potentiality lose. Factor in some draws against clubs fighting for survival and there is a small chance.

Liverpool have games against ManUtd, ManCity, Arsenal and Spurs coming up - hate to say it, but they are games that we could potentially lose as well. Victory in those fixtures coupled with slip ups from the teams above us and no slip ups on our behalf and the possibility of a 4th place finish is still there - just unlikely.

This season i think we will just have to settle for a Europa League spot. We are still in that competition and we are definitely in with a shout of winning it too. But that is probably as good as it is going to get this season. And we will be well adjusted to the competition when we play in it next season.

This summer is vital in the clubs rebuilding process, all indications are that we are going to strengthen the squad in more areas than one and build up a good young side that can challenge for years to come. Kenny Dalglish is likely to be the manager to take us forward into this period, and with him in charge the team is undoubtedly in safe hands. Who knows what might have happened if he had got the job in the summer and not Roy Hodgson? Who knows what would have happened if Rafa had stayed in charge?? Both, arguably, would have done a better job than the man who did get the job.

Next season is the real challenge. It is our time to show the world what a strong and stable Liverpool Football Club can do. Not saying we will win the league or anything - wouldn't wanna get peoples hopes up - after all it is not our given right to win it, or so we're told. But we can definitely be competitive with the other top teams, we can definitely challenge in the League for a top 4 finish, we can definitely challenge in the domestic cups and in the Europa League - anything else would be a welcome and much deserved bonus.

We may well be on the verge of good times once again - the last 6 weeks in particular have been amazing considering what came before, but it is important that we remain realistic in our expectations. We all want Liverpool to be challenging for top honours on all fronts, we all expect Liverpool to win every game and to play the Liverpool way, but first we have to work hard to put ourselves in a position where we can 'realistically' achieve all this - and we are not far off, and it will only come with hard work, belief and determination.

A top 4 finish this season is as i said, unlikely. I do not believe that it was Kenny's main objective to break into the top 4 when he took over, to be honest i do not believe that it was an objective full stop. I believe his job was merely to stop the downward spiral, improve results, and obtain a respectable finish - probably ensure that we got into the Europa League next season. What he has done is give us renewed belief, he has taken us back to a time when we played good football, and there was nothing but smiles all around. He has us reminiscing over past glories and dreaming of future glories, the fact that we are talking about a top 4 finish full stop is testament to how far we have come in such a short space - not too long ago it was all about Liverpool's relegation fight, now even in the media the talk is about Liverpool's slim top 4 hopes.

We arrived at the party a bit too late for a place at Elite table, but our day will come again, soon. In the mean time we need to concentrate on finishing as high as we can and get behind the team all the way.

For me, i think that next season will be completely different to this season, i think we could well be back on the upward curve once again - no one will write us off so easily next season.